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The roiling before the war in S. Sudan/Sudan?

Let’s hope we aren’t seeing the unraveling of the fragile peace between the countries of South Sudan and Sudan (South Sudan became independent last July), but an alert from the International Crisis Group suggests bleak prospects for calm to prevail. There’s little long-lasting optimism derived from news, reported by the BBC reports today that “South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has ordered the withdrawal of his troops from the Heglig oil field across the border in Sudan,” which both countries claim as their own. Khartoum claims it drove out South Sudanese forces. Heglig provides more than half of Sudan’s pol, says the BBC.

Source: Drilling Info International via BBC

Source: Drilling Info International via BBC

And so the civilians of both countries, who have suffered so much for so long (particularly women and children), likely will be caught once again in conflict. An earlier post here notes the worsening humanitarian emergency. The crisis group gives recommendations for what needs to occur to help stave off war, recommendations that highlight the danger of resolving key issues. The fundamental question is this: How does anyone get the countries’ leaders to make decisions that protect their citizens and give the two nations a real chance at progress? We’ll see how the diplomats do.

Here’s an excerpt from the International Crisis Group alert:

Sudan and South Sudan are teetering on the brink of all-out war from which neither would benefit. Increasingly angry rhetoric, support for each other’s rebels, poor command and control, and brinkmanship, risk escalating limited and contained conflict into a full-scale confrontation between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA). Diplomatic pressure to cease hostilities and return to negotiations must be exerted on both governments by the region and the United Nations (UN) Security Council, as well as such partners as the U.S., China and key Gulf states. The immediate priority needs to be a ceasefire and security deal between North and South, as well as in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile. But equally important, for the longer-term, are solutions to unresolved post-referendum issues, unimplemented provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) (that ended the civil war in 2005), and domestic reforms in both countries.

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